Trump administration moves closer to military action against Iran, sources say

Today in Brief

• Sources cited by Axios warn that the Trump administration is closer to military action against Iran than most Americans realise, despite ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva.
• The Commission adopts a strategy to support EU eastern border regions affected by Russia's war against Ukraine, with a new EastInvest financing facility and a high-level conference on 26 February.
• Over 30 foreign ministers, including from the EU and several member states, condemn attacks on civilians and humanitarian operations in Sudan.

Middle East

Sources warn that the Trump administration is closer to military action against Iran than most Americans realise.

Talks between the United States and Iran took place in Geneva earlier this week in an unusual format: the American side was represented not by diplomats but by M. Jared KUSHNER, the president's son-in-law, and special envoy M. Steve WITKOFF. The meeting lasted three hours. Iranian officials described the talks as serious and constructive, with Foreign Minister M. Abbas ARAGHCHI saying good progress had been made. Iran's side indicated it would return within two weeks with detailed proposals. Despite this public tone, Axios — which has deep sourcing in both the Trump and Netanyahu administrations — reports that a Trump adviser described the probability of military action in the coming weeks at 90%. The option under consideration is understood to be a large-scale joint US-Israeli operation. Since January, Washington has significantly reinforced its military presence in the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group, including three destroyers, is now positioned in the north-west Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most advanced carrier in the US fleet, is also expected to arrive in the region in the coming weeks. According to Axios, 50 additional combat aircraft, including F-35s, F-22s and F-16s, moved toward the region in the past 24 hours. On 13 February, M. Donald TRUMP had said that regime change would be "the best thing that could happen" in Iran. The current build-up recalls the sequence of events last June that preceded Operation Midnight Hammer, when the United States struck Iran directly for the first time.

EU Eastern Border Regions

The Commission adopts a strategy to support EU regions bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

The Commission has adopted a communication setting out a strategy for the nine member states with eastern land borders: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Executive Vice-President M. Raffaele FITTO presented the plan, which covers five priority areas: security and resilience, growth and prosperity, local strengths, connectivity, and people. On security, the Commission points to the Eastern Flank Watch, the European Drone Defence initiative, the European Air Shield, and the European Space Shield. On financing, the plan introduces EastInvest, a new facility bringing together the European Investment Bank Group, other international financial institutions, and national promotional banks, designed to improve access to lending and advisory support for affected regions. The Commission also commits to upgrading transport, energy, and digital infrastructure, including dual-use roads and rail, and cross-border connections with Ukraine and Moldova. A high-level conference will be held on 26 February, when the EastInvest declaration of intent will be signed. Mme Ursula VON DER LEYEN will open the event, which will bring together prime ministers and ministers from the member states concerned.

"Eastern border regions are not only national borders — they are European borders. Strengthening them is a strategic investment in Europe's security, stability, cohesion and competitiveness."

M. Raffaele FITTO, Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms

Foreign Policy

Over 30 foreign ministers condemn attacks on civilians and humanitarian operations in Sudan.

A joint statement signed by Commissioner Mme Hadja LAHBIB and the foreign ministers of more than 30 countries, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, and a majority of EU member states, has condemned drone and aerial strikes on civilians, health facilities, food convoys, and humanitarian compounds in Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan states. The statement calls on the Rapid Support Forces, the Sudanese Armed Forces, and their allied militias to immediately cease hostilities. It warns that intentional attacks on humanitarian personnel and supplies, as well as obstruction of relief access, may amount to war crimes. The Darfur and Kordofan states remain at the centre of what the statement describes as the world's largest humanitarian and protection crisis, with famine confirmed, sexual violence widespread, and up to 100,000 people displaced in recent months in Kordofan alone.

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